Evaluation of Uncertainty Associated to Analytical Water Injection Models by Assisted History Match and Probabilistic Techniques

摘要

Implementation of probabilistic methods, in the analysis of the reservoir variables allow obtaining more realistic models and identifying opportunities that generate greatest impact on the models.This finally leads to obtain better a developing plan, supported in ranked desitions. Colombian Petroleum Institute (ICP) in 2003 developed the methodology ASIA (Advanced System Analysis for Injection) wich is an adaptation of CGM technic for the analytical modeling of water injection.Within it Areal and vertical distribution of water in the reservoir is modelated by the history match of the oil water ratio behavior. This paper shows the strategy used to incorporate the risk and uncertainty analysis to the ASIA methodology in order to obtain an assisted history match and a panoramic review of the parameters behavior.