Integtated Uncertainty Quantification by Probabilistic Forecasting Approach in the Field Development Project

摘要

Development studies examine the importance of geologic, engineering, and economic parameters to formulate and optimize production plans. If there are many factors, these studies are high-priced unless simulation runs are chosen and analyzed efficiently. Reservoir studies require integration of geological properties of the reservoir, drilling and production strategies, and economic parameters. Integration is complex, because parameters such as permeability, drive mechanism, structural framework, and fluid saturation distributions are uncertain. Uncertainty in permeability, for example, could be caused by prediction at unknown locations from inexact seismic data, poorly distributed of precise well data and imprecise seismic data. Therefore the impact of uncertainty levels in key geologic and production parameters such as NTG, permeability, porosity, vertical transmissibility, skin factor must be assessed. The application of the system on a single, sector carbonate reservoir unit is taken through a development-plannig case study based on Field Development Plan, FDP. Ultimate recoveries, profiles, and economics for the range of possibilities are evaluated. Uncertainty quantification is attained in the development of a method that can model and quantify uncertainty in reservoir simulation in an efficient and practical way. In this study variety of approaches are investigated to estimate the uncertainty in a recovery prediction. The methodology which is employed in this study uses Monte Carlo simulation approach (probabilistic forecasting) and efficient selective simulation runs with simultaneous, multi variable input modifications. The results indicate that in terms of reserves points of view the main uncertainties are represented by NTG and permeability distribution. This can be attributed to indigenous heterogeneous carbonate reservoir deposition and dissolution. The uncertainity to the OOIP is also affected mainly by the reservoir structural framework; reservoir top depth variations.