Analysis on the Forecasting Effects of Early-Warning Models for Financial Crisis

摘要

Nowadays the research method of financial crisis early-warning models is linear, in which there are some faults, such as imperfect crisis theory and basic hypotheses, lacking critical variables and confusing the targets. These issues seriously affect the models predictable efficiency. In order to improve the financial crisis warning-models, we should enforce the research of basic financial crisis theories, adopt nonlinear method and focus on the inner characteristics of the economy system and the method of qualitative analysis.