Detection of Multiple Change Points and Analysis of Multi - scaleVariation for the Monthly Runoff in the Yellow River Basin

摘要

A hybrid method, combining the heuristic segmentation algorithm and the sequential Mann — Kendall test , is applied for detection of multiple change points and analysis of multi — scale variation for the monthly runoff in the Yellow River Basin during 1950 ～ 2002. Monthly runoff series from three stations, Lanzhou, Huayuankou and Lijin, as the representative stations for the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, are used in this study. Results show that one, three and six change points are detected for runoff series in Lanzhou, Huayuankou and Lijin stations, respectively. Multi — scales, ranging from 21 to 441 months, are identified for these three stations. Both decrease of change points and increase of scales imply that runoff in lower reach of the Yellow River has greater variation which may be resulted from vulnerable environment or intensive human activities. Linkages between runoff variation and climate change are noticed. However, further investigation is still required for deeply understanding the relationships among runoff variations, climate change and anthropogenic disturbance in the Yellow River Basin.