Investigating climate change impacts and adaptation options usingintegrated assessment methods

摘要

This paper illustrates the need for a range of methods, operating at different levels of representation and complexity, in order to investigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and the subsequent development of appropriate adaptation strategies. Three examples are given: 1. agro-meteorological metrics developed through a social co-learning process with stakeholders (simple but easier to communicate); 2. estimates for a spring barley crop using a generic cropping systems model (medium complexity); 3. estimates of grass production under a sheep grazing regime using the same crop model (higher complexity). The metrics and estimates are derived from observed weather data and downscaled future projection data from the HadRM3 Regional Climate Model. Results are shown to illustrate the complementarities between methods and how their combination creates a clearer picture of what conditions may be like in the future. The three levels indicate the need for a step-wise process for engagement with stakeholders.