2010-2020: A NEW DECADE OF CHANGES IN REFRIGERATION AND A/C Various Approaches To achieving A Low Climate Impact

摘要

By the start of the new decade CFCs will have been phased out in all developing countries. The focus will then shift to avoiding the emissions of CFCs and halons from existing banks in equipment and from stockpiles; although the Montreal Protocol does not control emissions, policymakers have asked for analyses on the climate impacts of emissions from banks to be conducted in 2009. The coming decade will also result in HCFC phase-out. Where it is currently well underway in developed countries and will be completed over the next years, the phase-out will start in developing countries with an agreed management plan. Here it should result in at least 35% reduction from the 2009-2010 HCFC baseline by the year 2020. If available and applicable, substitution of HCFCs should preferably be to low GWP alternatives and policy has directed substitution plans to be subject to environmental considerations including climate; for the first time ever. All this will occur together with the necessary change from HFC-134a to low GWP alternatives in mobile AC in many countries starting in 2011. This regulation has already spurred the development of low GWP HFCs or HFOs (such as HFC-1234yf and -1234ze) and further developments can be expected for more refrigeration and AC sub-sectors. At the same time the reduction in consumption of HFCs as well as a reduction of their emissions will be discussed more generally under both the Montreal and the Kyoto Protocol, where the latter controls the emissions via the "Kyoto basket". 2009 will be the year when this issue will be taken up; it could lead to unexpected outcomes by the end of 2009, at the time the Copenhagen Climate Conference will take place. In summary, a number of developments will be set in motion in the year 2009, which will give new impetus to the application of low GWP refrigerants, where natural refrigerants including ammonia will have to play a role. This paper will give an overview of the interlinkages of the issues at stake and will attempt to give an outlook for future developments.