The forecast of demand quantities of emergency commodities based on grey interval correlation degree

摘要

The accuracy of demand forecast of emergency commodities in unconventional emergency is closely related to the efficiency of emergency. In the early emergency, because of the incompleteness of information, the values of factors influencing the demand of commodities are undetermined. It is difficult to accurately predict the demand quantities of emergency commodities by general forecasting methods. This paper will denote the values of influencing factors of emergency commodities by the grey interval numbers, and the similarity of the goal case and the source cases in the case library by the grey interval correlation degree, and establish the model of demand forecast which integrates grey interval correlation degree and case-based reason in order to predict the demand quantities of emergency commodities.