Intuitive Space Weather Displays to Improve Space Situational Awareness (SSA)

摘要

Making definitive attributions concerning satellite anomalies proves to be a challenging endeavor given the dynamic space environment, the threat of adversarial actions, and unanticipated system failures. Further, decision makers are usually contending with performance shaping factors such as time pressure and the knowledge that errors can be extremely costly. Significant consequences can emerge with erroneous conclusions, whether it's failing to thwart an adversary's attack against our space assets, or misconstruing an environment effect for a hostile action that drives a response. Although accurate and reliable measurements of the disturbances in the earth's magnetic field and the flux of high energy protons and electrons have been available for decades, it remains challenging to translate these data into actionable information concerning the potential threat to on-orbit assets. Even though satellite operators actively monitor these hazards, until very recently there has been limited statistical relationship between the measured radiation environment and the likelihood of an anomaly to the on-orbit asset [5]. To address this need, the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) is supporting work to make space environmental effects information more accessible and actionable for users in the operational community. The tool under development leverages O'Brien's "hazard quotients" (which are derived from historical records of on-orbit anomalies) to relay the potential effect by presenting anomaly likelihood information related to surface charging, internal charging, single event effects, and the total accumulated particle dose.