Impact assessment of CO_2 mitigation options in Korea using energy system analysis model

摘要

The Korea Electric Power Research Institute (KEPRI) has performed a study to analyze the deployment impact of CO_2 mitigation options in the power generation sector in Korea, with IEA Clean Coal Centre. The goal of this study is the identification of the viable technology and legal options for CO_2 mitigation, and the impact assessment of the options for the Korean power generation sector. The MARKAL modeling package of IEA/ETSAP was used as an appropriate tool to make the database of Korean energy system in the model and assess the effects of the options. Several scenarios were made to study the effect of CO_2 emission reductions on the Korean power generation sector, and these were classified as the Base Scenario, New Technology Scenario, Carbon Tax Scenario, Total Carbon Emission Cap Scenario, and mixtures of the scenarios. Under the base scenario based on the National Electricity Plan of Korea, the future power generation will be dominated by nuclear and coal power plants, with some of natural gas fired plant and a very small proportion of renewables. However, with increasing pressure to mitigate CO_2 emissions, the analysis results of all four scenarios and combination of the scenarios showed that Korea would have to adopt a little different approach. An extensive modeling work was, therefore, undertaken to analyze the impact of various measures on introduction of new technologies and policies in order to achieve significant CO_2 emissions reduction. As results of this work, we found estimated average cost for a ton carbon mitigation and estimated amount of CO_2 emission reduction by application of each scenario including constraint of lower limit of coal power generation for security of energy supplies in Korea. The results obtained are to be suggested as recommendation in establishing a sustainable energy portfolio within the Korean power generation sector.