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Modeling Flood Hazard Due to Climate Change in Small Mountainous Catchments

机译:洪水危害因气候变化,小山区集水区

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Climate change is often represented by increase of extreme phenomena, like storms, torrential rains, and floods. Their regional and local dimensions vary from one area to another. This is especially valid for the regime and distribution of precipitation. Even for a country with relatively small territory, like Bulgaria, precipitation in some areas has increased during the last decades, while in others it has decreased. The only precipitation characteristic with undoubted trend of increase for most of the territory is the heavy and torrential rains (VELEV 2005, BOCHEVA et al. 2007). This means that, even in cases with no increase in the annual precipitation, there are less storm events but their quantity and intensity are higher. Torrential rains are one of the most important factors for flood formation and there is a significant increase in the number of this hazardous phenomenon during the last few years. The causal relationship between the increasing number of torrential rains and flood events for the last decades in Bulgaria can be illustrated with an example from Yantra River basin (fig. 1). The problem is more serious in the mountainous areas, where the amount of precipitations is normally larger and the topography facilitates a rapid increase of surface runoff and formation of disastrous peak flows. Spatial distribution of precipitation in the mountains is usually discontinuous. This is even more typical for the torrential rains, the influence of which is often concentrated in some parts of the river basin. They seldom exert simultaneous effect on all the tributaries of the main river (NIKOLOVA 2007).
机译:气候变化往往是由极端现象的增加而代表,如风暴,暴雨和洪水。他们的区域和局部尺寸因一个地区而异。这对降水的制度和分布特别有效。即使对于拥有相对较小的领域的国家,如保加利亚,在过去几十年中,某些地区的降水量也在增加,而在其他地区则会减少。对于大多数地区的唯一增加趋势的唯一降水特性是沉重而暴雨(威尔文2005,Bocheva等,2007)。这意味着,即使在年降水量没有增加的情况下,风暴事件较少,但它们的数量和强度较高。暴雨是洪水形成最重要的因素之一,在过去几年中,这种危险现象的数量显着增加。在yantra河流域的一个例子中,保加利亚过去几十年的越来越多的暴雨和洪水事件之间的因果关系可以用yantra河流域(图1)。在山区的情况下,悬垂量通常更大,沉淀量通常更大,地形促进了表面径流的快速增加和灾难性峰值的形成。山区降水的空间分布通常是不连续的。这对于暴雨来说更为典型,其影响通常集中在河流盆地的某些部分。他们很少对主要河流的所有支流产生同时效果(Nikolova 2007)。

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