Assessment of travertine evolution in Jiuzhaigou-Huanglong areausing grey system model

摘要

The travertine in Huanglong has lasted for thousands of decades on account of the karst geologic effect. In recent years, the travertine came to be dried up, blacken, sanded, which seriously affected the aesthetic characteristic. We find that there are no perfecting monitoring systems and timing data by collecting and anglicizing Monitoring data. We choose grey model which requires less timing data and higher predictive results. The travertine development is predicted using the Ph factor. The whole Huanglong predictive result is based on kriging of spatial statistical analysis. We plot the travertine development to three types, which include excessively eroded, weakly eroded and packed. The predictive result shows that the travertine stage is a dynamic balance and a decline recombinant phase.