How to Plan for Emergency and Disaster Response Operations in View of Structural Risk Reduction

摘要

Increase of economic activity, population density, choke points by multiple use of space, traffic nodes (mega-storey) high-rises etc. make our society more vulnerable. At the same time, there is a trend of increase in safety standard with political consequences. A disaster plan shall be ready and the mayor of a city is held responsible. It calls for a new multidisciplinary approach of emergency and disaster response planning coping with a wide variety of threats. It starts with the dilemma, in particular for political leadership, of where to draw the line of ‘how safe is safe enough.’ This depends on ambition of governance, risk profile of the region, policy of what shall be the capacity of emergency and disaster response forces versus the industry effort in protection and that of the public itself. Land use planning and licensing of industrial and building activity are keys for timely preparation. Risk analysis is used for years as a basis for decision making despite the uncertainty in underlying models. For the new task, however, not only space but also explicit time resolved scenario analysis has to be introduced since time is in response effectiveness a crucial parameter. The paper will describe a possible way ahead to help stakeholders to reach their goal, and the various tools, models and data needed. In the complexity of modern urban area and associated organizational structure scenario analysis once fully developed can become a major tool for improving resilience.