Visualizing Seismic Risk and Uncertainty A Review of Related Research

摘要

Government agencies and other authorities often communicate earthquake risks using maps de-rived from geographic information systems. Yet, little is known about the effects of these maps onrisk perceptions. While mental models research and other approaches are available to inform riskcommunication text design, similar empirically derived guidance is lacking for visual risk com-munications, such as maps, which are likely to trump text in their impact and appeal. This paperreviews the empirical research that might inform such guidance. Research on graphs, spatial andvisual perception, and map design suggests that graphics increase risk avoidance over numericalrisk representations, and countable visuals, like dots, can increase the accuracy of perceived risks,but not always. Cartographic design features, such as color, animation, interactivity, and depthcues, are all candidates to represent risk and uncertainty and to influence risk perception. Whilethere are robust known effects of color (e.g., red = danger), with some cultural variability, anima-tion can increase the salience of otherwise obscure features but is not uniformly effective. Depthcues, dimensionality, and the extent to which a representation depicts versus symbolizes a scenewill influence the viewer's perspective and perception, depending on the viewer's familiarity withthe scene; their effects on risk perception remain unclear. The translation and representation oftechnical information about risk and uncertainty is critical to risk communication effectiveness.Our review suggests a handful of candidate criteria for evaluating the effects of risk visualizations,short of changes in behavior: accuracy, accessibility, retention, and perceived risk and usefulness.