A MODELLING FRAMEWORK FOR SEROTYPE REPLACEMENT IN VACCINE-PREVENTABLE DISEASES

摘要

The discovery of glycoconjugate vaccines has had a significant impact on reducing the health burden of several infectious diseases, including Haemophilus influenzae serotype b. However, the use of such vaccines against a single or several serotypes of some pathogens has been a concern for serotype replacement. Previous studies have demonstrated this replacement phenomenon with limited evidence. However,the possible mechanisms of serotype replacement in the context of vaccination are not well understood. Here, we propose a modelling framework, which integrates the two scales of in-host and between-host infection dynamics to investigate the pathogen-host characteristics that are essential for serotype replacement. We integrate a stochastic model of pathogen dynamics in-host with an agent-based model of disease transmission between-hosts, which provides a novel approach for our investigation. We apply this multi-scale modelling framework to better understand the factors involved in serotype replacement of as a result of vaccination.