QUANTIFYING THE RISK OF MOSQUITO-BORNE INFECTIONS BASING ON THE EQUILIBRIUM PREVALENCE IN HUMANS

摘要

This paper proposes a general model for vector-borne infections that is flexible enough to comprise the dynamics of some known diseases transmitted by arthropods. From equilibrium analysis, we determined the number of infected vectors as an explicit function of the model's parameters and the prevalence of infection in the hosts. From the analysis, it is also possible to derive the Basic Reproduction Number and the equilibrium force of infection as a function of those parameters and variables. From the force of infection, we were able to conclude that, depending on the disease's structure and the model's parameters, it is possible to estimate a risk quantifier for those diseases. The analysis is exemplified by the case of malaria.