Order Restricted Duane Model of Reliability Growth

摘要

The Duane model has been widely used in the reliability growth test. However, using the model, the analysis and prediction of reliability may be unfaithful when the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of mean time between failures (MTBF) is not order restricted. After studying the Duane model and relevant statistical inference, an order restricted Duane model of reliability growth was proposed. The isotonic regression was used to get the order restricted MLE (ORMLE) of mean time between failures. A comparison between the mean square error (MSE)of the MLE and MSE of ORMLE showed that the ORMLE is a good estimate. The estimates of the model were obtained based on the ORMLE of MTBF with the method of least squares. Finally the model was used in a reliability growth test for reliability analysis and prediction.