On Extended Early Warning System for Government Debt Risk in Jilin Province

摘要

In view of present situation of socio-economic development and government's debt of Jilin province, this paper established risk interval of each index after putting forward assessment index system of government's debt risk of Jilin province, and founded multi indices extension model for risk assessment of government debt at first. Secondly, this paper carried on extension early-warning of government's debt risk of Jilin provincial from 2001 to 2006 based on statistical data. The results can be concluded as follows: (1) Government's debt risk of Jilin province in 2001-2006 had all stepped over secure interval and entered risk early-warning interval. Where, the risk value of 2001 was highest and lied in the intermediate region of risk early-warning interval, and the risk values of other years just entered risk-early warning interval, which were all closed to secure interval and far from crisis interval. (2) It is feasible to solve issues of local government's debt risk judgment and early-warning by extenics, the extension model established in this paper can not only distinguish which interval risk values in, but also distinguish subordinative degree of risk value for certain interval.