ACCURATE ESTIMATION OF TARGET AMOUNTS USING EXPANDED BASS MODELFOR DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT

摘要

The electricity demand in Korea has rapidly increased along with a steady economic growth since 1970s. Therefore Korea has positively propelled not only SSM (Supply-Side Management) but also DSM (Demand-Side Management) activities to reduce investment cost of generating units and to save supply costs of electricity through the enhancement of whole national energy utilization efficiency. However study for rebate, which have influence on success or failure on DSM program, is not sufficient. This paper executed to modeling mathematically expanded Bass model considering rebates, which have influence on penetration amounts for DSM program. To reflect rebate effect more preciously, the pricing function using in expanded Bass model directly reflects response of potential participants for rebate level.