Analysis of the US Fuel Ethanol Industry and Market Expectations

摘要

From humble beginnings as part of Henry Ford's vision of an agricultural based transportation industry and a rebirth as a fuel additive, ethanol is quickly approaching a 10% share of the US gasoline market. Fuel ethanol is currently found in over 50% of the gasoline sold in the US and the ethanol market is expanding at a rapid rate. Ethanol production has increased from 1.6 billion gallons in 2000 to a current capacity of over 8 billion gallons/year with almost 4.4 billion under construction. Several events have led to a rapid change in the Ethanol Industry: the development of the modern dry mill; cheap corn; politics and policy; and market forces. How will near-term market forces and legislation impact the ethanol industry and the development of new cellulosic technologies?