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Major Risks Analysis With a Scenario Based Methodology

机译:具有基于场景的方法的主要风险分析

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摘要

In our industry, major risks are associated with the processing of explosive, flammable or toxic substances. Identifying, assessing and managing risks associated with these substances are integral part of our continuous efforts to improve safety. The management of risks involves reducing the risks for both inside and outside our sites to a level As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). The principles involved in the assessment and management of major risks are: 1. Hazard identification 2. Preliminary risks evaluation 3. Detailed and quantified risks analysis 4. Risks assessment and ALARP demonstration 5. Development of a priority-based program of improvements and of a major risks register. There are two approaches for risks assessment, Aggregate Risk Assessment and Scenarios Based Risk Assessment. Although these methodologies are often complementary, the first approach allows calculating the aggregate risk to personnel, expressed as Individual and Societal Risk. Thus the a vantage of this approach is to address the global risk, the principal disadvantage is that it doesn’t allow identifying the main critical scenarios of accident and the final results (Individual and Societal Risks) are hidden in mathematical calculations, with the use of computer model. In the second approach, the Scenarios Based Risk Assessment, the critical events are selected in the preliminary evaluation step and studied in detail to establish the severity of damages and the likelihood of occurrence. The recommended methodology for the detailed risks analysis is the Bow-Tie approach (causes tree – consequences tree and safety barriers). Each critical scenario is assessed with respect to the Company risk acceptance criteria based on a Risk Ranking Matrix. This methodology ensures the demonstration of the ALARP level of the risks and the identification of the Safety Critical Measures (SCM). Definition and ranking of the additional risk-reducing measures allows preparing a priority based program of actions and a register of the Major risks.
机译:在我们的行业中,主要风险与爆炸性,易燃或有毒物质的加工有关。识别,评估和管理与这些物质相关的风险是我们不断提高安全性的不可或缺的一部分。风险管理涉及将我们网站内外和外部的风险降低到低于合理切实可行(ALARP)的水平。参与评估和管理重大风险的原则是:1。危险识别2.初步风险评估3.详细和量化风险分析4.风险评估和ALARP示范5.制定优先考虑的基于优先的改进计划和A.主要风险注册。有两种风险评估,总风险评估和基于风险评估的方案的方法。虽然这些方法通常是互补的,但第一种方法允许计算人员的总风险,表达为个人和社会风险。因此,这种方法的一个有利度是解决全球风险,主要缺点是它不允许识别事故的主要临界情景,最终结果(个人和社会风险)隐藏在数学计算中,使用计算机模型。在第二种方法中,基于方案的风险评估,在初步评估步骤中选择了关键事件,并详细研究以确定损害的严重程度和发生的可能性。适用于详细风险分析的推荐方法是弓形式方法(导致树木和安全障碍)。根据风险排名矩阵,对公司风险验收标准进行评估的每个临界情景。该方法确保了盟友风险和识别安全关键措施(SCM)的展示。额外风险降低措施的定义和排名允许准备基于优先的行动计划和主要风险的登记册。

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