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LANDSLIDE HAZARD MAPPING USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION- A CASE STUDY IN TAIWAN

机译:使用Monte Carlo Simulation的滑坡危险映射 - 台湾案例研究

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Taiwan's slope disasters resulted from heavy rains happen frequently due to its geographic, weather and topographic conditions. Therefore, the slope disasters in Taiwan cannot be neglected. With the development of GIS, the infinite slope analysis method which uses deterministic concept will confront two major problems when it is used in evaluating landslide susceptibility: first, the various engineering parametrics can't be determined easily, second, the mutual independent between grids will cause the unreal conditions such as the low landslide potential grids surrounded by high ones. This study chooses route Tou-71-from Puli to Ren-Ai as the main research area and typhoon Toraji as the rainfall event of analysis. The study also use the wide-range slope stability analysis software-TRIGRS, and Monte Carlo simulation which considers the uncertainty in parametrics to replace traditional single factor of safety with probability ones. The landslide susceptibility of study area is described by potentially failure probability.
机译:由于其地理,天气和地形条件,台湾的斜坡灾害经常发生严重雨。因此,台湾的坡灾害不能被忽视。随着GIS的发展,使用确定性概念的无限斜坡分析方法将在评估滑坡易感性时面对两个主要问题:首先,可以轻松地确定各种工程参数,第二,栅格之间的相互独立的导致虚幻条件,例如高山体滑坡潜在网格被高位围绕着。本研究选择将Tou-71-uli-71到Ren-AI的路线作为主要研究区和台风Toraji作为分析的降雨事件。该研究还使用广泛的斜坡稳定性分析软件-RIGRA,以及蒙特卡罗模拟,其考虑参数测量仪中的不确定性,以用概率替代传统的单一安全性。研究区域的滑坡易感性由潜在的失效概率描述。

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