Simulation of Human Effects on Bull Trout Population Dynamics in Rimrock Reservoir, Washington

摘要

A life cycle model was employed to identify the response of an adfluvial bull trout Salvelinus confluentus population to chronic and catastrophic losses of subadults. The model simulates the bull trout population within Rimrock Lake, Washington, a reservoir on the Tieton River impounded by Tieton Dam. Subadult bull trout are entrained during summer water releases for irrigation, and the dam has no fish passage facilities to enable those fish to return upstream. Suitable spawning and rearing habitat is primarily upstream of the dam. Tagging studies of adult bull trout passing weirs in the two major tributaries to the reservoir were used to estimate model parameters for survival, maturity rates, reproductive capacity, and initial abundance. Sampling data and the deterministic model simulations indicated that the population was capable of rebounding quickly from intermittent catastrophic events. Resilience of the bull trout population resulted from high adult longevity and repeat spawning. The accumulation of mature adults across multiple age-classes led to egg deposition that fully seeded rearing capacity of the natal tributaries, even when several consecutive broods of juveniles exhibited poor survival. Catastrophic events simulated to entrain 50%of the subadults every 15 years caused a 40% reduction in adult abundance within 4 years of the event, followed by a full recovery to maximum production within 9 years. Even during the low point of adult abundance, 15 times more eggs were deposited thanwere needed to fully seed juvenile tributary habitat. Because the population was already producing juveniles at capacity, simulations for opening fish passage over Rimrock Dam showed that the sustained spawner population would increase by only two adults. However, simulations for expanded juvenile habitat by 14% indicated that the sustainable adult population would increase by 14%. Thus, habitat improvements that target juvenile rearing capacity appear to have the greatest potential to increase population size.