GIS-based integrated assessment and decision support system for land use planning in consideration of carbon sequestration benefits

摘要

As the major eligible land use activities in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), afforestation and reforestation offer opportunities and potential economic benefits for developing countries to participate in carbon-trade in the potential international carbon (C) Sink markets. However, the design and selection of appropriate afforestation and reforestation locations in CDM are complex processes which need integrated assessment (IA) of C sequestration (CS) potential, environmental effects, and socio-economic impacts. This paper promotes the consideration of CS benefits in local land use planning and presents a GIS-based integrated assessment and spatial decision support system (IA-SDSS) to support decision-making on 'where' and 'how' to afforest. It integrates an Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Model (InTEC) and a GIS platform for modeling regional long-term CS potential and assessment of geo-referenced land use criteria including CS consequence, and produces ranking of plantation schemes with different tree species using the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Three land use scenarios are investigated: (ⅰ) traditional land use planning criteria without C benefits, (ⅱ) land use for CS with low C price, and (ⅲ) land use for CS with high price. Different scenarios and consequences will influence the weights of tree-species selection in the AHP decision process.