Strategy Model for Petroleum Contracts: A Holistic Sensitivity Analysis of Oil Royalties to Hydrocarbons Commercialization.

摘要

The development of a petroleum exploitation strategy is essential for any country for developing its petroleum resources. Petroleum exploitation strategy includes a series of policies relating to licensing, taxation, royalty, and legal instruments. Contractual agreements are developed by the state in order to ensure the orderly development of petroleum exploration and production. In the absence of a clear petroleum exploitation strategy, the international oil companies of Peru and Latin American would not be able to assess the political and economic risks to the preservation of the reserves in a focus of commercialization. The proposed methodology comes from a study of the forecast of WTI oil price in its inference (0.650%) annual, (0.645%) monthly as in its daily. It is subject to progressive decreasing jumps every five years at 50% for the factor of the prospective increase (PI), caused by external agents (Positive turning: 30.48%; Negative Turning:-36.04%), then evaluate the 3 scenarios (Proved Developed Reserves, IP and 2P) with case studies for WTI: Low, Base and High. The sustainability of the Reserves status is initially defined from a deterministic approach, and followed by the development of a programming language for the interpretation of the simulation of royalties under a probabilistic approach in the contractual period. Since the International Oil Companies are major sources of the intensive capital, and sophisticated technologies needed for exploration and development of petroleum resources, it is essential for a country to formulate a coherent and well-balanced petroleum exploitation contractual strategy. This should be consistent with its social and economic goals and at the same time allow the international oil companies to generate economic profits that in some way relate to the level of risk involved in obtaining these profits and setting a rate of minimum refund of 100% since 2020 year. For 2026, it seeks to have an incentive by the State regarding the minimum royalties for oil light (35%), and raw Median-Heavy (25%) independent of WTI oil price variability in the probable and possible reserves in addition to the incorporation of Integral rate of refund. Likewise, there is a tolerance of up to 25% in the return on investment for the company to verify an additional investment in the development of resources within the last 10 years of the oil contract.