Measuring the Weather Variability Effects on the Agricultural Sector in Morocco

摘要

Weather variability affects agricultural productivity, especially the growing conditions of crops. This impact is considered as the main obstacle to the realization of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing food insecurity and poverty in poorest countries. In this paper, we provide some insights into the relationship between annual variations in temperature and rainfall on the one hand, and annual agricultural productivity on the other hand. Based on Diebold and Yilmaz approach, we assess the degree of connectedness and variability effects transmitted among the above variables. The sampling frequency data is annual and covers the period from 1980 to 2016. The findings highlight a substantial increase in weather variability in critical periods; more precisely the extreme variability in weather conditions was noticeably accompanied by significant increases in the spillover effects transmitted to agriculture in Morocco. Particularly, the results confirm the deep relationships between rainfall and agriculture in Morocco. In fact, increases in rainfall may have had a positive effect; however, the threat of temperature rise and rainfall reduction increases the risk of droughts.