Intervention Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents in Nigeria

摘要

This study reports on the development in road traffic accidents in Nigeria since 1994. The preliminary survey took Edo state, one of the 36 constituent States of Nigeria, as a case study. An intervention model, which is a combination of an ARIMA noise and dichotomous models, was employed in analyzing a seven-year monthly accident time series obtained from the Federal Office of Statistics and the Federal Road Safety Corps of Nigeria. The Durbin Watson's test statistic, used to ascertain the adequacy of our ARIMA predictive model, suggested that the intervention model adopted has a good fit. The study points up a significant reduction in the rate of road traffic accidents through multiple policy interventions of Nigeria.