Tversky and Kahneman [1] described the biases known as anchoring and overconfidence, respectively, as: the tendency of people to base estimates on any number just seen; and the tendency of people to provide too narrow ranges when estimating the range that an uncertain value might fall within. They also suggested that anchoring might be causing overconfidence if people start by working out their best guess and then adjust from there to get the end points of their range - such that the best guess acts as an anchor. This has passed into the management literature as fact [2, 3] but research on this relationship is actually mixed [4, 5]. This previous research has, however, focused almost exclusively on decision makers making decisions significantly different from those that they normally would.
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