Wind Resource Assessment Using an Advanced Mesoscale Atmospheric Prediction System: Implementation at Four Sites in Hellenic Territory

摘要

In the present work, a short-term wind power forecasting system, namely PROGNOSIS is presented and evaluated. The two main components of the system are: i) a CFD tool by the name VANE for wind flow representation over any topography appropriately calibrated for complex terrain cases, and ii) a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWMP) model for atmospheric parameter forecasts which provides the basic input for wind power forecasts. The NWP model applied is the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) developed at the US Naval Research Laboratory. COAMPS runs operationally on a daily basis at InFlow ensuring an independency from external meteorological services. Systematic application of the model since the end of 2005 together with wind predictions from operational weather forecast models used by National Weather Service Organizations and wind measurements from meteorological masts resulted in a wind database development continuously updated and enriched. To evaluate the system, mesoscale time series from the NWP database are extracted and directly compared with wind mast data from four sites in Greece where measurements are available. Next, reproduced wind roses from mesoscale forecasts are evaluated against the mast data. The results seem very promising regarding the procedure verification and encouraging conclusions are drawn.