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Hierarchical Inconsistent Qualitative Knowledge Integration for Quantitative Bayesian Inference

机译:定量贝叶斯推论的分层不一致的定性知识集成

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We propose a novel framework for performing quan-titative Bayesian inference based on qualitative knowledge. Here, we focus on the treatment in case of inconsistent qualitative knowledge. A hi-erarchical Bayesian model is proposed for integrat-ing inconsistent qualitative knowledge by calculat-ing a prior belief distribution based on a vector of knowledge features. Each inconsistent knowledge component uniquely defines a model class in the hyperspace. A set of constraints within each class is generated to describe the uncertainty in ground Bayesian model space. Quantitative Bayesian in-ference is approximated by model averaging with Monte Carlo methods. Our method is tested on ASIA network and results suggest that it enables reasonable quantitative Bayesian inference from a set of inconsistent qualitative knowledge.
机译:我们提出了一种基于定性知识的全新举行贝叶斯推理的新框架。在这里,我们专注于在不一致的定性知识的情况下进行治疗。通过基于知识功能的向量来计算先前的信仰分布,提出了一种高仲裁贝叶斯模型,用于积分不一致的定性知识。每个不一致的知识组件唯一地定义了超空间中的模型类。生成每个类中的一组约束,以描述地面贝叶斯模型空间中的不确定性。定量贝叶斯in-ference通过模型平均与蒙特卡罗方法近似。我们的方法在亚洲网络测试,结果表明它可以从一系列不一致的定性知识中实现合理的定量贝叶斯推断。

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