Keynote Speech: Guerilla War in open Societies - could Al Qaedawin?

摘要

Al Qaeda see themselves as waging a global guerrilla war with the objectives of uniting Islam and eclipsing Western power. We make the perhaps disastrous mistake of not considering the worst case of Al Qaeda victory. Such a victory would build on Al Qaeda's success in becoming a global player, in fighting US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, and reducing US influence in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. Terror attacks on public transport carry this campaign into the Western home base. They cause casualties and fear and have broader functions of strengthening Al Qaeda's global profile, sabotaging strategic infrastructure using self sacrificial support from within the West, inciting repression to radicalise and polarise the Islamic population and making it harder for governments to send expeditions abroad. Victory for Al Qaeda might come through the combination of regime change in oil producing states, access to nuclear weapons and disabling communal violence in Europe. Western leadership has largely discarded tried and tested war winning political formulas used in both guerrilla war and the second world war. Nevertheless, successes against terrorist preparations, the popular distaste for Al Qaeda's values & the strength of Western society gives us time.