A Joint Model of Time to Breast Cancer Recurrence and CA15-3

摘要

The main purpose of the present analysis is to jointly analyse longitudinal data of the tumour marker Carcinoma Antigen 15-3 (CA15-3), and the probability of recurrence of patients with breast cancer, by incorporating a spatial effect in order to infer how patients' residence location affects the progression of the disease. A data set of 540 patients was collected from medical records of Braga's Hospital, in Portugal. A joint model of the two stochastic processes was used, as it is expected an association between longitudinal progression of the tumour marker and time-to-recurrence. Results suggest that the longitudinal progression of CA15-3 is significantly associated with the probability of breast cancer recurrence for these patients. Factors such as images of vascular invasion affect the longitudinal process. While factors such as triple negative tumour, primary tumour size and Regional Lymph nodes involvement degree affect the probability of recurrence. The spatial effect is significant on both longitudinal and time-to-recurrence process.