Simulation of historical and current fire regimes in central Saskatchewan for annual allowable cut determination

摘要

The dynamics of Canadian boreal forests are affected by the catastrophic natural disturbance regimes such as forest fire. Therefore, the determination of annual allowable cut (AAC) needs to take this factor into account, especially under the climate change scenario that predicted significant increase of fire activities. To achieve this goal, a model that can simulate fire regimes under different fire management effort is necessary. We adapted the Spatially Explicit Model for DANdscape Dynamics (SEM-LAND) to the Saskatchewan conditions and performed a model experiment to simulate the fire regimes in a study area located in the central Saskatchewan. The simulation results suggest that fire suppression could lead to longer fire cycles, smaller mean fire sizes, more fire numbers per year, and increased mean forest age (time since fire). The relationship between mean forest age and annual area burned was estimated from the results of this model experiment. This relationship can be used to determine theideal fire management target of annual allowable area burned from expected future forest conditions.