INTEGRATED SPILL MODELING FOR IMPACT ANALYSIS

摘要

This paper examines the potential use of computer models to estimate environmental impacts from oil spills. Computer simulation models for oil spills have long been used for risk analysis and have continually improved over the past few decades. Beyond risk analysis, however, these modeling tools could contribute to the estimation of the environmental impacts such as species mortality and shoreline contact. Proposed activities such as offshore oil and gas exploration and development can be analyzed using models that integrate spillsimulation capability with environmental resource and toxicological data. To estimate the potential use and reasonableness of such models for oil-spill impact analysis, the authors have applied a commercially available state-of-the-art spill model using previously unavailable historical winds and currents data and spill events extracted from the oil-spill record for the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). This is one of the first efforts to bring together such complete data sets for modeling effects on so broad a geographic and temporal scale. Such information is valuable in determining the reasonableness and appropriateness of model use for impact analysis of future exploration, development, and production activities.