USING SCENARIO TREE MODELLING FOR THE EVALUATION OF SURVEILLANCE STRATEGIES FOR ZOONOSES IN DISEASE-FREE AND ENDEMIC SITUATIONS

摘要

In recent years, the surveillance of animal diseases has been influenced by the threat of emerging infectious diseases of animal origin. Zoonotic diseases account for the majority of all emerging infectious diseases. Therefore, veterinary services aremore and more challenged with public health issues. This stands in contrast with the increasingly limited resources for disease surveillance. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and Brucella melitensis (Bm) are two important zoonotic diseases occurring worldwideand causing serious public health and economic damage. The surveillance of such zoonoses is complex and resource consuming. In order to efficiently economize available resources, it is important to assess and evaluate the detection performance of each surveillance system component and the overall performance of the surveillance system. In this paper, an approach using scenario tree modelling is described for the example of bTB surveillance in Switzerland and Tanzania and the surveillance of Bm in Switzerland as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina.