Diagnosis on Cargo Traffic Forecasts in Large Logistics Facilities

摘要

The aim of this paper is to identify and understand the reasons why the inaccuracy of traffic forecasts, or business forecasts in general, occurs. It is already apparent that organizations planning major projects frequently anticipate that revolutionary change would occur once the project comes into operation. In reality, this often does not happen. This paper identi8fies, in particular some major failures in the field of the forecasting of cargo traffic. These failures include; (1) Jnsensitivity to qualitative factors, such as the notion of momentum, the development of a sharper competitive edge by the projects competitors, and a lack of appreciation of the real needs of players and customers; and (2) Over reliance on quantitative analysis as a major tool in investment decision-making.