Cmilate Change impact on Electrical Power System, Case study from Jordanian Electrical System

摘要

Climate change is an old issue fully taken into consideration by the environmental scientist but with less attention by the energy decision maker and economist. Climate change and global warming are caused by emission and greenhouse gases (GHG); this leads to increase the mean global temperature over the next years and decreasing the precipitation amount. The mitigation and adaptation to the climate change is unavoidable choice. Policy makers should take the mitigation and adaptation potential to reduce the negative impact of climate change on various sectors and aspects including the electricity sector. Electricity contributes the global GHG emissions by significant amount which is leading to the climate change. In other hand, climate change has a huge potential to contribute to climate electricity sector. Changes in Climate Change factors which are Temperature, Precipitation, and raising the sea level affect how much electricity is produced, transmitted, distributed, and consumed. It also affects the electrical losses on transmission and distribution networks. This study discus one of the most significant climate change factor which is warming temperature impact on the energy sector and solutions represented by mitigation techniques, adaptation measures, and compatible development. Single variable regression analysis is applied to quantitatively analyze the temperature increasing then analyze the impact on the generation of energy side. Data from metrological station in Amman-Jordan is selected for this study. The historical ambient temperature is the input variables to estimate the maximum combined cycle output power and link the warming of temperature into degradation of energy generation and see what the financial impact of this. Over last 5 decades, maximum, minimum, and average temperatures have significant increasing trends. Warming trends in the maximum temperature is about 1.3°C while the warming trend in the minimum temperature is about 2°C, which is greater than maximum temperature trends. For the energy sector specifically, the impact of maximum temperature warming trend is more significant than the warming trend of the minimum temperature is. For the coming years, single variable regression techniques shows an average increase in mean temperature of about 0.087 degree/year, 0.08 degree/year for the maximum temperature, and 0.09 degree/year for the minimum temperature. In general, it has been noticed that ambient air temperature of Amman city is trended to be increased over the next years. The main outcome of this study offers remarkable insights and new perspectives for policy makers and planners in helping take proactive measures in the contexts of climate change where it becomes essential to understand how this temperature increasing may also affects ecosystems and human life if such a trend continues. Therefore, new measures and practices should be taken to mitigate these concerns. Temperature Increase will likely decrease how much electricity is produced from the gas turbine and from the combined cycle plants, this will lead to compensate this cheap energy from more expensive sources like diesel engine power plants, this study shows how this has a significant financial impact on the energy sector in Jordan and handle a mitigation technique to reduce the ambient temperature absorbed by the compressor of the gas turbine or combined cycle power plants. The two techniques are, Evaporative Coolers and Fogging Nozzles, to cool the inlet air that leads to an increased density of the inlet air, giving in turn a higher combustion air mass flow. Warming temperatures reduce the he gas turbine and from the combined cycle plantscapacity and effieciency. Reducing the efficiency has an economical impact on cost of the more fuel burnt which increases the cost of the generated energy or having a new investment to compensate the capacity drop. During summer maximum demand (at very hot temperature higher than 36°C), the output pow