Challenges for the Japan and the East Asian Steel Industries

摘要

Macroeconomic analysis 2003/ With no decisive way to combat deflation on the horizon, the Japanese economy is not yet ready to start a self-sustaining recovery. However, exports have continued at a high level, and capital investment has been rebounding since the beginning of 2003. From this perspective, therefore, the Japanese economy is following a mild recovery path. All things considered, Japan's real GDP is expected to grow about 1.9 percent in 2003. 2004/Public investment will continue to decline in 2004 due to central and local governments' severe budgetary situations. In addition, a downtrend will continue in private-sector housing investment. Meanwhile, given that corporate investment intentions have been improving, led by large companies, capital investment is expected to remain firm in 2004. Foreign demand is expected to stay at more or less the previous year's level as the world economy overall appears to be on a recovery trend. Japan's real GDP is forecast to rise about 1.5 percent in 2004, though there will be some downside risks, including the yen's appreciation.