The main purpose of developing the LEPS system is to be able to provide the forecaster with probabilistic guidance (e.g. estimates of the probability of overcoming given thresholds for a number of meteorological variables as a function of space and time) to identify the possible/probable occurrence of severe weather conditions in the time range "late-short-range (72h)-early-medium-range (120h)" and with a higher spatial detail, typical of Limited-Area prediction Models (LAMs). The meteorological variables one has mostly in mind in such an exercise are first and foremost quantitative precipitation, but also temperature and wind. Let us consider very briefly how the problem came about, with no pretence of completeness.
展开▼
