RISK EVALUATION OF THE GEOLOGY DISASTERS WITHIN A WATER ECOSYSTEM

摘要

This paper finds a way, which employed Monte Carlo quantitative methods, to analyze the risk of some geology disasters within a water ecosystem. Several uncertain factors which resulted in various geology disasters were studied emphatically. Fuzzy risk analysis approaches were used to calculate the random and fuzzy behavior of the uncertain factors, and finally form related fuzzy risk models. Calculation programs were written by a dispersion method and applied to the analysis on the risk of some geology disasters in some places of the Xi Jiang River sides. Probabilities for the risk of some geology disasters were found. The probabilities can be considered as the scientific basis for the risk evaluation of the water ecosystem concerned.