Role of Hybrids in the Transition from Carbon to Hydrogen

摘要

The "Hydrogen Economy" has been the subject of much debate, as a means to address concerns over both greenhouse gas emissions and the long-term security of energy supply. Hydrogen has often been proposed as a future road transport fuel, usually in association with a fuel-cell prime mover. However, a combination of factors including the cost and robustness of fuel cell vehicles, the cost of hydrogen, difficulties in storing and transporting hydrogen, and the need for hydrogen to be produced from carbon-free sources to be truly effective, all indicate that such technologies are unlikely to be introduced in high volumes in the near future. In Europe there is agreement to produce vehicles with significantly less pollutant emission, fuel consumption and tailpipe carbon dioxide. This policy appears to favor the evolutionary introduction of low-carbon usage hybrid vehicle technology which is compatible with likely near term fuelling and vehicle manufacturing infrastructures. Ricardo have recently completed a study for the UK Department for Transport and Department of Trade and Industry, in which two step-wise technology routes from carbon to hydrogen based transport were studied in terms of their environmental benefits, risks and likely on-sale costs. In this paper, key points from the carbon to hydrogen study are combined with Ricardo experiences in hybrid vehicle engineering and an outline analysis of some of the economic factors governing early uptake of hybrids. It is concluded that progressive hybridization offers an excellent route toward a Hydrogen / Fuel Cell future or a variety of other alternative futures including those featuring the internal combustion engine or breakthrough electric vehicles. The additional cost of this new technology remains a significant factor, but will be reduced as initial investments are recovered and rising manufacturing volumes enable the economies of scale to be realized. Some initial purchase incentives may provide the catalyst in bringing about this transition.