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Long-term wind resource and uncertainty estimation using wind records from Scotland as example

机译:使用苏格兰的风记录为例,长期风力资源和不确定性估算

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An analysis of the sensitivity of the wind resource at different sites in Scotland was performed. The main aims of this study are (a) to analyse the electricity production for a typical wind turbine using hourly wind measurements at seven sites in Scotland, and (b) to identify any long-term trend in that production reflecting possible climate change. A 46-year long data set of wind measurements from seven UK Meteorological Office surface stations at the Glasgow-Edinburgh latitude, capturing typical situations in that region, from coastal sites exposed to the Atlantic to sheltered suburban sites. The annual variations of the wind speeds were analysed in terms of the capacity factor which an idealised wind turbine would achieve at the height of the anemometer of 10 m above ground and at an extrapolated height of 80 m. One of the items of discussion was motivated by the observation in the wind industry that the year 2010 was a poor year, with hopes that it was just an exceptional year and fears that it might be an indicator of continuing climate change. The result of this discussion is that 2010 can only be seen as an outlier if one assumes that the past decades represent a constant wind climate but allowing for a slow climate drift, suggests that 2010 may have been a low-wind year but consistent with generally observed fluctuations around a changing wind climate.
机译:进行在苏格兰不同的地点风能资源的敏感性分析。这项研究的主要目的是:(a)分析电力生产使用在七个地点在苏格兰,和(b)每小时的风测量,以确定该作品,反映了气候变化可能任何长期趋势的典型的风力涡轮机。来自七个在格拉斯哥,爱丁堡纬度英国气象局地面观测站,捕捉该地区典型的情况下,从接触到大西洋到避风场所郊区沿海站点测风的46年之久的数据集。风速的年变化,其中一个理想化的风力涡轮机将实现以10m以上地面风速计的高度和在80微米的外推高度容量因子方面进行了分析。其中一个讨论的项目是由风电行业观察动机,2010年是一个贫穷的一年,希望这只是一个特殊的年份,并担心它可能是继续应对气候变化的一个指标。这次讨论的结果是,2010年只能被视为异常如果假设在过去的几十年代表恒风气候,但允许一个缓慢的气候漂移,表明2010可能是一个小风年,但符合一般围绕着变化的风气候观测波动。

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