Owners and financiers alike must have a clear understanding of the underlying causes for power generation that does not match expected output. This study consisted of meteorological and climatological analyses that were used to refine future production estimates and asset valuation based on actual power production data. Using a series of advanced meteorological techniques and a limited amount of actual power production data, wind plant operational performance was assessed to: 1) more clearly understand the basis for short-term production variances, and 2) accurately value the asset based on expected power production. These techniques include analysis of weather patterns and their effect on production during a specific period of performance, and even more importantly, use of meteorological downscaling techniques to reconstruct a time series of power production to re-evaluate long-term asset performance expectations and valuation. The results of the study were successful in exposing the drivers of wind plant performance. WindLogics anticipates using these results in an ongoing effort to evaluate the performance of the wind plant on a monthly, quarterly and/or annual basis.
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