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The Valuation of Geothermal Power Projects in Indonesia Using Real Options Valuation

机译:基于实物期权的印尼地热发电项目估值

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Geothermal power project should be carefully evaluated, because not only the project is large-scale and high-risk, but also huge investments are needed to make the project profitable. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and analyze the present value of the geothermal power plant projects in Indonesia using net present value and real options valuation approach to obtain better project value that indicates profitable investments. Project value determined based on Net Present Value (NPV). The Monte Carlo Simulation calculated NPV based on discount rate, production volume, and operation and maintenance (O&M) cost. The risk of the project defined with 3 scenarios to obtain NPV and calculate Expected Net Present Value (ENPV). The result of this study showed Real Options Valuation obtained the highest project value indicating a higher return of the project that was previously undervalued using NPV and ENPV. Real Options Valuation approach improved the project value by incorporating scenario analysis and strategic option in the valuation process.
机译:地热发电项目应仔细评估,因为该项目不仅规模大,风险高,而且还需要大量投资才能使该项目盈利。这项研究的目的是使用净现值和实物期权估值方法评估和分析印度尼西亚地热发电厂项目的现值,以获得更好的表明可获利的投资的项目价值。根据净现值(NPV)确定项目价值。蒙特卡洛模拟基于折现率,生产量以及运营和维护(O&M)成本来计算NPV。用3种方案定义的项目风险,以获取NPV并计算预期净现值(ENPV)。这项研究的结果表明,实物期权评估获得了最高的项目价值,表明该项目的收益更高,而之前使用NPV和ENPV对该项目的价值却被低估了。实物期权评估方法通过将方案分析和战略期权纳入评估过程,从而提高了项目价值。

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