Europe: · Attempts to commercialize 42V in 2003/4 have been delayed -Not enough value, too much technical risk. · If fuel efficiency is the main driver, Diesel is a better solution for Europe. U.S.: No clear market driver but Diesel is unlikely to be accepted in the U.S. (California) Japan: The market driver is fuel efficiency-Higher voltage makes more sense! The proliferation of 42V Vehicles is 5 to 8 years away and will depend upon: · Governments' determination to address global environmental issues and express the level of their commitment via mandates, incentives, and taxation. · Consumer demand for advanced features, which will add further pressure to the need for a significant upgrade of the vehicles' electrical systems. · Improvement of system reliability and reduction of system cost. Battery Technology and Lead Acid: · The battery is becoming a more critical component of vehicle functionality; · The basic 42V vehicle could only afford lead-acid chemistry; · VRLA, if proven reliable, will start to take market share in both advanced 12V and 36/42V applications; · Energy and power management will become common; · Improvement in VRLA life and reliability is a tie breaker for the commercial viability of 42V ISS and for 42V Launch Assist applications (current life is about 1 year); · R&D investment in advanced VRLA is largest in Japan; · Unless a breakthrough in lead acid performance occurs, mild and power assist hybrid vehicles will require a more expensive power source. The candidate power sources for hybrid vehicles by order of maturity, but not necessarily long-term potential, are: · NiMH: → Pros: Long and proven life; → Cons: Cost, low temperature power, and charge efficiency; → Two big names (Panasonic and Sanyo) with several secondary contenders. · Li Ion: → Pros: Power; → Cons: Cost, abuse tolerance, life unproven; → The leaders are major Japanese producers and Saft. · VRLA & Ultracapacitor hybrid: → Pros: Operating temperature range, power, raw materials; → Cons: Current cost, power management, early development stage; → Interest in UltraCap is growing steadily and there are new players If hybridization is the main driver, Higher voltage than 42 is probably. If hybridization is the main driver, Higher voltage than 42 is probably preferred.
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