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A Framework for Validation of Computer Models

机译:验证计算机模型的框架

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摘要

In this paper, we present a framework that enables computer model evaluation oriented towards answering the question: Does the computer model adequately represent reality? The proposed validation framework is a six-step procedure based upon Bayesian statistical methodology. The Bayesian methodology is particularly suited to treating the major issues associated with the validation process: quantifying multiple sources of error and uncertainty in computer models; combining multiple sources of information; and updating validation assessments as new information is acquired. Moreover, it allows inferential statements to be made about predictive error associated with model predictions in untested situations. The framework is implemented in two test bed models (a vehicle crash model and a resistance spot weld model) that provide context for each of the six steps in the proposed validation process.
机译:在本文中,我们提出了一个框架,使计算机模型评估导向在回答问题:计算机模型是否充分代表现实? 建议的验证框架是基于贝叶斯统计方法的六步程序。 贝叶斯方法特别适合处理与验证过程相关的主要问题:量化计算机模型中的多个误差源和不确定性; 结合多种信息来源; 并更新验证评估作为新信息。 此外,它允许对与未经测试的情况中的模型预测相关的预测误差来进行推理语句。 该框架在两个试验台模型(车辆碰撞模型和电阻点焊模型)中实现,为所提出的验证过程中的六个步骤中的每一个提供上下文。

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