Influence of the Anthropogenic Emissions and Atmospheric Chemical Processes on Climate in the XXI Century

摘要

Using four scenarios of the emissions of greenhouse and other antropogenic gases for the period 2000 - 2100 developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the tropospheric content of these gases for the period has been calculated with the help of a one-dimensional mathematical model of the middle atmosphere and other approaches. Data for carbon dioxide (CO_2), methane (CH_4), nitrous oxide (N_2O), ozone (O_3), chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) have been obtained. With help of the data obtained and literature data on the greenhouse gas concentrations and associated radiative forcing and the Earth's surface temperature, total radiative forcing and temperature changes for 2000 - 21000 have been calculated for all the IPCC scenarios. In addition, the contributions of tropospheric and stratospheric chemical processes to the results obtained have been estimated.