Project duration planning method based on the combination use genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation

摘要

This paper proposes a new method to plan the project durations that are modeled as stochastic networks such as GERT network. Since stochastic networks have a variable time and a branching probability for each arrow, the total duration of the network is also modeled as a variable. In order to complete the project by the desired date with a certain confidence, the variable times or branching probabilities of the network should be designed appropriately. We will propose a planning method for branching probabilities to realize the desired project duration using GA and Monte Carlo simulation.