Evaluation of brown rot (Ralstonia solanacearum) control strategies: development of a epidemiological model

摘要

An epidemiological model was developed to simulate brown rot prevalence and dispersal in the Dutch potato production chain. The aim of the model was to obtain insight into the contribution of certain risk factors to brown rot prevalence. Model simulations show an irregular pattern of yearly number of infections that is also characteristic for brown rot in reality. They also show the importance of contaminated surface water in brown rot prevalence. The model has many other application possibilities and will be used to evaluate the effect of control strategies on brown rot prevalence.