Analysis of Car Structures in Future Market and Necessary Policy for Environment Based on the Vehicle Performance and Economic Aspects

摘要

Increasing CO{sub}2 emissions from vehicles is becoming a major concern in automotive society, and variety of future types of cars are intensively investigated. However it is not clear which level of performance and cost must be achieved for the future cars to be available in a market and how much percentage of cars is necessary to be replaced by the future cars for the conservation of environment. This paper investigates the possibility of market growth of future cars, as hybrid-cars, electric vehicles and fuel cell cars, based on the performance and economic aspects. A model of user preference of cars was established from the statistic analysis of past data. The cost and performance of each type of cars was estimated based on data from past trend and literature. The result of the analysis shows that electric cars and vehicles with hydrogen fuel cells have the best potential for reduction of carbon dioxides. During the next 20 years hybrid vehicles with engine and electric motor will take a major market share, and cars with fuel cells will appear from around 2015. Because of the improved efficiency of future vehicles, carbon dioxide emissions from passenger cars will be suppressed until 2015, then emissions will start to increase due to increased transportation demands, when GDP growth rate is assumed to be 2%.