Evaluation of Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Damage Risks and Adaptation Strategies

摘要

This paper evaluates the potential impact of hurricane damage risks to buildings due to climate change and adaptation strategies. The analysis includes a probabilistic hurricane wind field model and a hurricane vulnerability model. There is a great uncertainty on the potential change in hurricane hazard patterns due to climate change. To represent this uncertainty and to investigate the potential impact of climate change, the paper explores the scenarios of increases of -5 to 10% in mean annual maximum wind speed over 50 years. The effects of regional development dynamics, the rate of retrofit, cost of retrofit, reduction in vulnerability after retrofit, and discount rate are investigated. This risk-cost-benefit analysis is vital in indentifying optimal and cost-effective adaption strategies to the potential adverse effects of enhanced greenhouse conditions. Miami-Dade County, Florida is used as a case study to evaluate the economic viability of various adaptation strategies.